Risk and Impact of Tropical Cyclones and their Compound Hazards
Tropical cyclones (hurricanes) pose a significant threat to both human lives and the economy, with annual damages in the U.S. exceeding $28 billion on average. Our research advances physics-based models to downscale synthetic hurricanes and perform high-resolution numerical simulations of multiple hurricane-induced hazards. These hazards include storm surge-driven flooding caused by strong winds, inland flooding from intense rainfall, and the complex interaction of surge and rainfall-driven flooding in coastal urban areas. By simulating these individual and compound hazards at high temporal and spatial resolutions, we assess the impacts of climate change on their behavior and drivers under current and future warming scenarios.
Our modeling framework incorporates the effects of shifts in storm climatology and sea-level rise—key factors exacerbated by climate change—along with the expansion of urban areas. This allows for a deeper understanding of how these elements influence the magnitude and spatial extent of hurricane-induced compound hazards. Additionally, we integrate machine learning models to quantify the economic risks associated with these hazards, especially in the context of a warming climate. These empirical models help project economic losses stemming from intensifying hurricanes and their associated hazards.
Through these simulations, we also evaluate the cost-effectiveness of various adaptation strategies, including engineered defenses and nature-based solutions. This enables us to provide critical insights into how cities can better prepare for future hurricanes and their compound hazards, offering actionable solutions to enhance resilience and mitigate the increasing risks posed by climate change.
Designing Resilient Coastal Cities to Compound Flooding from Hurricanes
During hurricane landfall, storm surge-induced flooding and inland heavy rainfall-driven flooding can occur simultaneously, interacting synergistically to produce compound flooding, which is significantly more destructive than either hazard alone. In this study, we developed a computational and physics-based hydrodynamic model to simulate compound flooding events driven by synthetic hurricanes under current and future climate scenarios in New York City. These high-resolution numerical simulations enable a detailed assessment of key drivers of compound flooding, including shifts in storm climatology and rising sea levels, both of which amplify the magnitude and frequency of such events. Our analysis reveals that, under the current climate, a destructive compound flooding event similar to Hurricane Sandy may occur once every 150 years; however, by the end of the century, due to rising sea levels and changing storm patterns, the recurrence interval for such events could decrease to once every 30 years.
The increasing frequency and magnitude of compound flooding in a warming climate highlights the urgent need to integrate these projections into urban resilience planning to mitigate the growing risk from future hurricane-induced compound hazards.
Link:https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/105/2/BAMS-D-23-0177.1.xml
Economic Damages from Intensifying Hurricane Compound Hazards
Our study presents a sophisticated computational framework that synergizes physics-based risk assessments with advanced machine learning techniques, including Conditional Random Fields and Deep Learning, to model the complex relationships between hurricane hazard magnitudes—such as extreme winds, storm surges, and compound flooding—and their resulting economic impacts on coastal cities. This framework provides a comprehensive approach for assessing both the current and future risks of multiple hurricane-induced hazards. Using high-resolution synthetic hurricanes in a warming climate, we are able to project future economic damages on critical infrastructure and residential areas.
By combining physical simulations with data-driven models, this approach enhances our understanding of how shifting storm climatology, rising sea levels, and expanding urban areas interact to magnify the economic risks posed by hurricanes. Through detailed risk quantification, our findings offer essential insights that support the development of robust adaptation strategies and resilient infrastructure. These strategies are crucial for mitigating both direct and indirect economic losses, especially as climate change accelerates the intensity and frequency of compound hazards associated with tropical cyclones. This study is currently in preparation, with the potential to guide future policy and urban planning aimed at minimizing the escalating impacts of hurricanes in a changing climate.